How It Works
The idea
Opinion Market lets you vote on questions and bet on what the crowd will choose.
The gap between votes (what people genuinely believe) and bets (what people think others believe) reveals collective intelligence.
Credits
When you join, you get 1,000 credits. Credits are the currency for betting and creating questions.
You spend credits to buy into outcomes, and earn credits when your predictions are correct.
Voting vs. betting
Voting is free and private — express your honest opinion. Votes may be hidden until periodic reveals or until the question ends.
Betting costs credits. When you buy into an option, the price moves — popular options cost more per credit.
Buying early on a less popular option gives you a bigger potential payout.
Creating questions
Creating a question costs 50 credits, which seed the initial betting pool equally across all options.
This gives early bettors something to trade against and makes the market functional from the start.
As compensation, the creator earns 0.5% of all trading volume on their question, up to a cap of 100 credits.
A popular question can more than pay for itself.
Buying & selling
Buy: Enter the credits you want to bet. The app shows your potential payout if that option wins.
A 5% fee supports voter rewards and the question creator.
Sell: Changed your mind? Sell your shares back anytime before the question ends.
Settlement
When a question ends, votes are counted. The option with the most votes wins.
The entire betting pool (including the creator's initial seed) is split among people who bet on the winner, proportional to how much they invested.
The voter fee pool is distributed equally to everyone who voted.
₿ Daily BTC Daily Bitcoin question
Every day the app automatically opens one question — "Will BTC be higher or lower than $X by tomorrow?" —
where $X (the strike) is Bitcoin's live price at the moment the question is created, read from the free CoinGecko price feed.
You vote and bet on Higher or Lower just like any other question.
Unlike normal questions, the daily BTC question does not resolve by vote — it resolves against the
real Bitcoin price a day later. If the price is above the strike, Higher wins; below, Lower wins;
exactly equal is a push and all bets are refunded. While the next day's price hasn't been recorded yet, the question shows
"Awaiting BTC resolution". Any live price shown on an open question is indicative only and never decides the outcome.
Probabilities
Each option shows a percentage — this is the market's implied probability based on how much has been bet.
If 70% of the pool is on "Yes", the market thinks "Yes" has a 70% chance of winning the vote.
Position & value
Your position shows two numbers:
- Value — what you'd get if you sold now (before fees)
- Payout if wins — what you'd receive at settlement if your option wins the vote
Leaderboard
Tracks lifetime earnings from correct predictions across all settled markets.
Profit = payouts received + cash-outs + voter dividends − credits bet.
All data lives on the Usernode blockchain. There is no central server — every participant sees the same state derived from the same transactions.